Hydrogen demand is most likely to increase in the next few years: the industry needs are expected to rise strongly and very soon.

Nowadays hydrogen is mainly produced from fossil fuels. Half the world production is provided by methane reforming, being today the most competitive available process. Alkaline electrolysis is the only mature process that may be a sustainable way to produce hydrogen if the electricity that feeds the process is free from greenhouse gases.

Given the growing demand for hydrogen, many research works are devoted to advanced processes throughout the world (thermochemical cycles, high temperature electrolysis). These advanced processes that are currently developed for massive hydrogen production will be implemented if they enable lower production costs. In such a context, proposing a target cost for these advanced processes is of great interest. Different approaches are possible: we propose here to establish this reference cost from the projected costs of current industrial processes. The present study mainly focuses on the industrial hydrogen market, implying short to medium-term goals (2020-2030).

The target cost will strongly depend on the economic context which is at stake: as regards alkaline electrolysis, is the electricity produced by dedicated means or bought from the market? It is then fundamental to compare the production cost of the advanced process to evaluate, to a current one in similar economic contexts.

First estimates show that sustainable hydrogen production processes that lead to production costs below 3 €/kg could be competitive but particular attention must be given to the hypotheses.