Long-range roadmaps or raising reflexivity for facilitating the transition to hydrogen economy?
This presentation aims at two objectives.The first is to raise some methodological concerns on how road-mapping recently finds way into considerations on hydrogen future. While widely shared long-term expectations may stabilise them, emerging breakthrough technologies like hydrogen energy technologies and their economic utilisation necessarily occur in extremely turbulent context and face deep information uncertainty. To avoid early lock-in governance of their transition dynamics first of all needs full-fledged reflexivity. Road-mapping has been increasingly used in a number of countries to make their roadmap for Hydrogen Economy(HE). Different reasons may make different agents committed to some sort of HE. Because early commitment to exclusion of looking for alternatives might cause avoidable lock-ins, keeping interest e.g. in repeated scenario building and the expectation dynamics are getting the most important to be integrated in considerations on possible futures. Further, attention is required to develop societal robustness (SOCROBUST) of networks, based on value commitments, when other economic drivers are weak.
Hungarian governmental policy of the hydrogen economy issue is backward. The small community is at the beginning of its self-organization. As a result, Hungary is still far away from a long-term national roadmap. Another objective of the presentation is to characterize and take into consideration the perspectives, expectations and value commitments of the recent agents in Hungary. The preliminary results about this transition state show, how, beside and in connection to the global global dynamics turning into trendlike dynamics the actors act to form a trend toward a HE in Hungary, too.